US consumer inflation expected to have surged in March amid Iran war - Reuters

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNT0xMYzVjbXA1dkd6NFVtTkhhTWtQb2h3WEp3aEZXOV9YbjdwZHVDUE5Qd0RWbUZjcy12VUgtTy1tTXZhS0V1MjI4UXlGQmV2R0E0c3psMTlaaGFRR0hoSXItNXo1R2JmTk1oVW5fdE1uWlVxNERtZG10R2NZcldqdnBhS18waWVabTB3cGFEbDlCSFBVM1lKVDgtbXhCOTEzOUcxVUxjSXNZYmc?oc=5" target="_blank">US consumer inflation expected to have surged in March amid Iran war</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font color="#6f6f6f">Reuters</font>

In February 2026, a key inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve rose by 0.4% from January, maintaining an annual inflation rate of 2.8%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also increased by 0.4% month-over-month and was up 3% from the previous year. These elevated levels came before the war in Iran, which has since driven up gas prices, suggesting inflation was already persistent.

Amid ongoing conflict involving Iran, American consumers are experiencing heightened concerns about inflation, primarily driven by soaring gas prices. According to the New York Federal Reserve, median one-year inflation expectations rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4%—the sharpest rise since early 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the current spike in inflation fears, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, suggesting a temporary surge rather than a prolonged issue.

The March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated due to the economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. This war has triggered a surge in oil and gasoline prices, raising inflationary concerns. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 0.8% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is forecast to rise 0.2% monthly and 2.7% annually. However, some forecasts are more pessimistic, such as BofA Securities, which predicts a 0.9% monthly increase due to a 10.6% rise in energy prices.

The ongoing war in Iran is predicted to result in lasting economic consequences for U.S. consumers, particularly through heightened inflation. Regardless of how long the conflict endures, significant damages to oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have already disrupted energy exports, pushing up global fuel prices. U.S. gasoline prices may rise from the current $4 per gallon to over $5 this summer if the conflict escalates, while diesel is expected to surpass $6, increasing shipping and farming costs. Fertilizer shortages from the Gulf will impact global agriculture, especially in the Northern Hemisphere’s spring planting season, driving up food prices.