How Iran war laid bare the world's reliance on Gulf oil and gas

Countries around the world are feeling the impact of the conflict and the resulting energy price shock.

In his first official statement since becoming Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed to continue aggressive actions against Gulf Arab nations and emphasized using the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the U.S. and Israel. The statement, read on state television, also pledged retaliation for war casualties, including victims of a school strike. This declaration signals Iran’s intent to prolong the conflict that has destabilized global oil markets, displaced millions, and damaged infrastructure across the Middle East.

As of March 2026, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at its lowest level in three decades, holding 415 million barrels, which is about 58% of its total capacity. This comes at a time of global oil supply strain due to Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for about 20% of the world's oil. In response, the Trump administration announced plans to release 172 million barrels, roughly 40% of the current reserve, to help stabilize markets amid rising prices. Despite being the world's largest oil producer, the U.S. is facing challenges in swiftly replenishing the reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that fully refilling the SPR would require about $20 billion and could take until 2031 at a maximum fill rate of 4 million barrels per month. While the reserve release won’t offset the actual supply shortfall, it is expected to alleviate investor concerns and prevent drastic price hikes. The SPR was originally established by President Ford in the aftermath of the 1973–74 oil embargo for exactly such emergencies.

Amid escalating Iranian military attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, there is increasing international momentum to establish a naval protection system for shipping routes in the key oil transit chokepoint. The U.S. Central Command has accused Iran of using civilian ports along the strait for military operations that endanger maritime traffic and lives. Despite growing concerns, the U.S. Navy has not yet begun escorting tankers, though preparations for such a move are underway and may be fully realized by late March or early April. Approximately 20,000 seafarers currently operate in the Persian Gulf, adding urgency to maritime safety concerns. U.S. energy officials, including former President Trump, are monitoring the crisis and evaluating military options to ensure continued oil shipments, while also preparing to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize gas prices. However, maritime experts express caution, suggesting they would still hesitate to transit the strait without guaranteed safety.